{"id":2281,"date":"2020-03-17T02:24:53","date_gmt":"2020-03-17T07:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/?p=2281"},"modified":"2022-01-10T21:36:00","modified_gmt":"2022-01-11T03:36:00","slug":"pondering-a-virus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/?p=2281","title":{"rendered":"Pondering A Virus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Already I feel a little bit silly spending almost a whole day pondering a virus. My research was completed rather quickly and can be by anyone a little bit savvy on the Internet. I feel there are much better uses of time. But since I’m into it, if it helps one person a little bit with their fear or faith, or looking at this objectively, I think it’s worth it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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First let me state my qualifications, which are few. I have a degree in mathematics from the University of Arkansas. However let me truthfully say that I feel more like an escapee than a graduate. That said with no false humility, I was exposed to statistics, many algorithms from algebra, geometry, calculus, number theory, and algebraic theory. So I\u2019m mathematically ( the universal language ) inclined enough for simple deduction and reasoning, with statistical validity and error analysis skills, to look at this threat to humanity simply and objectively, by the numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I\u2019m using the KISS principle if you will, (Keep It Simple Stupid), which suits me and most of humankind I believe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Definitions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper name.\u201d Confucius <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solomon said 500 years earlier that,\u201dThe fear of the Lord is the beginning of wisdom.\u201d We won\u2019t argue or even discuss the \u201cbeginning\u201d part, which could be semantics or context? But I love history, and I love wisdom. I also like to view life through the eyes of the ancients, seeing what\u2019s been valid enough or meaningful enough to be passed down through history as truth. Certainly when discussing or researching a matter and looking for truth, one has to be clear on words and their meanings, or \u201ccalling things by their right names.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] co\u00b7ro\u00b7na\u00b7vi\u00b7rus: any of a group of RNA viruses that cause a variety of diseases in humans and other animals. Or if you prefer something from the medical community rather than the dictionary, this is from John Hopkins: A newly identified type (of coronavirus) has caused a recent outbreak of respiratory illness now called COVID-19 that started in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2] swine flu: The 2009 flu pandemic or swine flu was an influenza pandemic that lasted from early 2009 to late 2010, and the second of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, albeit a new strain. And: According to the latest WHO statistics (as of July 2010), the virus has killed more than 18,000 people since it appeared in April 2009\u2026.\u201d Wikipedia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3] Spanish flu: The 1918 influenza pandemic was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the swine flu in 2009. The Spanish flu infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion. Wikipedia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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OK, simply put I\u2019ve listed above three major outbreaks of the flu in history. Actually and factually the coronavirus isn\u2019t even honorable mention yet. Check it out by the numbers you can search any day of the week. By any metric: total number of cases, how contagious, how fatal when contracted, etc. It\u2019s just not that destructive by the numbers. And it\u2019s hard to tell why the experts the media chooses to quote think it is? You get a different picture when you read medical journals, etc. So why don\u2019t we? Is it because our default is to slave toward fear? Or slave to the media who make their money that way, having turned long ago from objective reporting of the facts to sensationalism and fear? Just a thought. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll go ahead and prescribe my simple math operations to calculate and compare the threat the coronavirus is today compared with past versions of the flu in our country and perhaps the world. But I think a better approach might be to demonstrate what other experts are saying without being filtered through the media. And encourage you to turn off the hype and do some research yourself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numbers of People With The Virus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] # COVID-19 Cases CDC Reports as of March 16 \/ US Population = % of Population
\n 3487 \/ 330,435,890 = .0011%
\n[2] #Swine flu Cases CDC Reports as November 2009\/ US Population = % of Population
\n 200,000 \/ 309,300,000 = .0645 %
\n[3] # Spanish flu Cases CDC Report 1918-1919 \/ US Population = % of Population
\n 34,485,000 \/104,500,000 = 33% (est. 1\/3 of the population at the time)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Number of Deaths Due to The Virus<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] # COVID-19 Deaths CDC Reports as of March 16 \/ US Population = % of Population
\n 68 \/ 330,435,890 = .00002%
\n[2] #Swine flu Deaths CDC Reports as November 2009\/ US Population = % of Population
\n 10,000 \/ 309,300,000 = .0032%
\n[3] # Spanish flu Deaths CDC Report 1918-1919 \/ US Population = % of Population
\n 675,000 \/ 104,500,000 = .646%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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These are the numbers, verifiable from the CDC Website and from history. They certainly don\u2019t indicate a pandemic yet, and if it were to become one, it seems likely to be small compared to 1918 and 2009. So it would seem to me the USA needs a good slap in the face to be snapped out of hysteria and back to reality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here<\/a> to see John Hopkins Medical folks tracking the world wide numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click <\/a>here<\/a> to see the up to date numbers in Arkansas on two maps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click here<\/a> to see the up to date U.S. numbers as reported by the CDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is some troubling uncertainty of course because it\u2019s new, specifically the Italy numbers. I would assume they are accurate and growing while the numbers in China and South Korea are diminishing. But even the numbers as percentages of the population are quite small in all these countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Compare the coronavirus with another virus in the USA this year. According to a US News & World Report<\/em> article<\/a> February 7, 2020, \u201cInfluenza has taken the lives of 10,000 Americans this season. At least 19 million have caught the flu, with 180,000 landing in the hospital because of it.\u201d \u201cThe CDC predicts that at least 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected.\u201d
That puts coronavirus in a different perspective with it 3487 cases and 68 deaths. It\u2019s the flu season. Take precautions. Take courage. Live life, without fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Finally read this John Hopkins up-to-date article<\/a> about COVID-19 and other such medical journal articles. They seem far away from the media\u2019s hype and spin. You will get a much different perspective of the disease and the associated risk it poses to the health of our citizens and country. May you farewell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Here are a couple quotes from the article<\/a>. \u201cAs of Mar. 16, 2020, 6,705 deaths [world wide] have been attributed to COVID-19. However, 77,657 people have recovered from the illness.\u201d \u201cIn rare cases, COVID-19 can lead to severe respiratory problems, kidney failure or death.\u201d Does this sound like what you\u2019ve been hearing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If more people would take a positive, you might say \u201cfaith filled,\u201d attitude about life, and exercise common sense with a historical perspective, there would be a lot more toilet paper, paper towels, and bleach on the shelves of our local markets. And our economy and our lives could return to normal. May it be so, and may it be soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cOverheard in an Orchard\u201d by Elizabeth Cheney<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Said the robin to the sparrow,”I would really like to know Why those anxious human beings rush around and worry so.”
Said the sparrow to the robin,
“Friend, I think that it must be
That they have no Heavenly Father
such as cares for you and me.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Already I feel a little bit silly spending almost a whole day pondering a virus. My research was completed rather quickly and can be by anyone a little bit savvy on the Internet. I feel there are much better uses of time. But since I’m into it, if it helps one person a little bit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,10,11],"tags":[66,81,67,33,68,76,89,79],"class_list":["post-2281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-friendoftheking","category-be-a-leader","category-understanding-our-times","tag-coronavirus","tag-courage","tag-covid-19","tag-faith","tag-fear","tag-flu","tag-research","tag-spin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2281"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2348,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2281\/revisions\/2348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/afriendoftheking.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}